Sports betting futures wagers can be an entertaining and profitable investment, but there are a number of pitfalls. These are some things to avoid:
You gotta shop around: More specifically, you have to \’shop points\’ just as you would with a straight bet. This is crucial in all forms of sports betting but particularly key with futures wagers. There are often greater variances in the prices from book to book on future plays than any other type of wagering proposition. The reason for this is simple–most books are less concern with what the \’other guys\’ are doing as they are with keeping their own position \’in balance\’. All in all, the sports betting marketplace just doesn\’t react as quickly to changing futures prices as it does to individual game lines.
In a competitive field, don\’t obsess with picking the winner: This may sound like a strange concept, but once you understand the theory behind it it makes perfect sense. In a large field–the NCAA basketball tournament is a perfect example–the top few favorites are invariably priced at odds that are less than the \’true odds\’ of them winning. On the other hand, there are always teams that fly \’under the radar\’ available at higher prices that present a betting overlay.
In more theoretical terms, the \’true odds\’ of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way–say we\’re betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let\’s say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.
In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria\’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.
Don\’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a \’big killing\’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn\’t make it a good value. If you\’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don\’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.
Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you\’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the \’true odds\’ of the event occurring.
Don\’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the \’true odds\’ of a Martian being named to President Obama\’s cabinet wouldn\’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.
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