College football betting enthusiasts who took North Carolina as +16′ road underdogs were never in serious doubt about the eventual payday they’d receive as the Tar Heels never trailed by more than three points. The Tar Heels improved to 3-4 against the college football pointspread, while the Hokies dropped to 3-5 versus the money. The 37 combined points scored went UNDER the posted total of 43′.

Tar Heels’ QB T.J. Yates was in a state of disbelief after the narrow road victory:

“I’ve never really had this feeling before. Kicking it at the last second? It just sends chills down your spine.”

Running back Shaun Draughn spoke of the team’s priority to bounce back quickly after they blew a big lead in a loss to Florida State last week:

“We knew we had to get back to the drawing board. To come back and play the way we did definitely speaks volumes about our team.”

In the Hokies’ locker room, linebacker Cody Grimm spoke of his team’s need to regain their focus:

“I think the motivation is to come out here so you don’t feel like this again. Ten wins is one thing, but I don’t want to feel like this any more and the only way to do that is to win.”

Running back Ryan Williams felt doubly bad about the loss, as his late game fumble cemented the victory for North Carolina:

“As of right now, there probably isn’t really anything they can say to lift me up because regardless of what anybody says, personally I feel like I kind of took the game away from us today. It was on the line, it was in my hands and I fumbled.”

The Hokies will play against next Thursday night, heading to Greenville, NC to face the Skip Holtz coached East Carolina Pirates. They’ll play at Maryland on Saturday, November 15 before returning home a week later to host North Carolina State. North Carolina plays their next two at home, starting a week from Saturday against Duke. Miami will come in the following week before the Tar Heels hit the road to play at Boston College on November 21.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on baseball betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

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NFL sports bettors were faced with a choice between two teams with dismal ATS records in this game, and those who had the guts to take a 1-3 team as a -3 road favorite were rewarded with the cover. It was Carolina’s first NFL pointspread cover of the season and left them with a 1-4 record against the number. Tampa Bay has covered one of their six games this year. The 49 points scored went OVER the total of 40′. Tampa Bay has gone OVER in 4 of 6, while Carolina has exceeded the total in three of their five games.

Delhomme attempted only seven passes in the second half, but the way Williams and Stewart were running there was no reason to put the ball in the air. Williams said that even though Tampa Bay knew what was coming they couldn’t stop the Panthers’ running game:

“I’m sure everybody in the stadium knew what we were going to do. There were times they had nine in the box and we were still getting 7 or 8 yards.”

There’s been little impatience locally with Bucs’ rookie head coach Raheem Morris, but his weekly habit of explaining the obvious to rationalize yet another loss is starting to wear thin:

“We got overpowered at the end, and really throughout the game.”

Carolina safety Dante Wesley was ejected after clobbering Bucs’ return man Clifton Smith after a fair catch call. After the game, Wesley gave this defense for his actions:

“I was just trying to make a play. You can check my record. I’ve never really tried to hurt anybody. I’ve never tried to take a cheap shot on anybody.”

Wesley could face a possible fine or suspension from the NFL but, in all fairness, it did appear to be a momentary mental lapse as he was trying to make a big play and not a deliberate attempt to injure Smith.

Tampa’s schedule has the look of them going from ‘the frying pan into the fire’ as they host the New England Patriots next Sunday-fresh off of their 57 point drubbing of Tennessee. The Bucs are +14 home underdogs to the Patriots with the total set at 45. They’ll get a week off after that contest and return to action on November 8 as they host the Green Bay Packers. Carolina has an easier draw, hosting the Buffalo Bills next Sunday. The game is currently off the board pending the status of Bills’ QB Trent Edwards who suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win over the New York Jets. The Panthers will then play on the road the following two Sundays, traveling to Arizona and New Orleans.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

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The Chargers easily covered the NFL pointspread as -6 road favorites. It was only the second pointspread cover of the year for San Diego, who moved their ATS record to 2-4. Kansas City dropped to 2-5 against the spread.

After the game, QB Rivers suggested that the loss to Denver was a turning point for his team:

“Last week, we felt like we made progress. We had the attitude we were looking for, focus, but we didn’t win. But we knew we got better.”

Tomlinson broke off one of his most impressive runs of the year on the Chargers first touchdown drive, a 31 yard pickup that he said lifted the team’s spirits and led to the easy victory:

“It kind of got us going. It was something we needed and it was a big play for us. It was a staple of our offense. It’s been around for years, old power. It was perfectly blocked and was just a great job of execution.”

The Chiefs continued to struggle on their home field, which at one point was considered one of the toughest venues in the league for visiting teams. Kansas City has now lost ten straight at Arrowhead Stadium, and 29 of their last 32 games. Chiefs’ nose tackle Ron Edwards lamented this home field struggle:

“We want to win for the home fans, for us, for everyone out there watching,” nose tackle Ron Edwards said. “It’s real painful.”

Rivers pointed to the Chiefs’ legacy of home field dominance in celebrating the win:

“Any time you come to Kansas City and win, it’s good. We talked about getting on a roll and you’ve got to win one first before you can. Hopefully, this is something we can build on.”

The Chargers return home to take on their hated rivals, the Oakland Raiders. Next Sunday’s game has San Diego listed as a -16′ home favorite with the total set at 42′. They’ll travel to play the New York Giants the following week before returning home to face the Philadelphia Eagles on November 15. Kansas City will enjoy a bye week before returning to action on November 8 on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their next opportunity for a home victory will come on November 15 against the Oakland Raiders.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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First, let’s examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don’t count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That’s not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.

The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the “better” team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the “better” teams have not only more ‘marquee names’ to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they’ll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They’ll have no need to “create a winning attitude”, nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the “better” teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.

NFL ‘doormats’, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They’ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They’ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they’re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a ‘meaningless’ preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.

While some teams could care less about the result of preseason games, few want to enter the regular season having lost them all. In light of this fact, a successful preseason situation that has stood the test of time is to bet on teams that lost their first two exhibition games outright. This situation has produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don’t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won’t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team’s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.

One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it’s a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you’ll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren’t any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach’s goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they’re considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There’s nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer experienced in travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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You gotta shop around: More specifically, you have to \’shop points\’ just as you would with a straight bet. This is crucial in all forms of sports betting but particularly key with futures wagers. There are often greater variances in the prices from book to book on future plays than any other type of wagering proposition. The reason for this is simple–most books are less concern with what the \’other guys\’ are doing as they are with keeping their own position \’in balance\’. All in all, the sports betting marketplace just doesn\’t react as quickly to changing futures prices as it does to individual game lines.

In a competitive field, don\’t obsess with picking the winner: This may sound like a strange concept, but once you understand the theory behind it it makes perfect sense. In a large field–the NCAA basketball tournament is a perfect example–the top few favorites are invariably priced at odds that are less than the \’true odds\’ of them winning. On the other hand, there are always teams that fly \’under the radar\’ available at higher prices that present a betting overlay.

In more theoretical terms, the \’true odds\’ of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way–say we\’re betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let\’s say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria\’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don\’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a \’big killing\’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn\’t make it a good value. If you\’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don\’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you\’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the \’true odds\’ of the event occurring.

Don\’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the \’true odds\’ of a Martian being named to President Obama\’s cabinet wouldn\’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

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The Bengals also made short work of the NFL pointspread, easily covering as +1′ home underdogs. Cincinnati improved to 4-3 against the number while Chicago evened their ATS mark at 3-3.

A smug Benson described his feelings after the win:

“Everybody knew it was going to be an emotional day. Everybody knew. What a wonderful day and a wonderful thing, to go out there and strut your stuff.”

Despite the evidence to the contrary, Benson downplayed the motive of revenge:

“I continue to be as graceful as I can be. I’m not shoving anything in anybody’s face. Like I say, it wasn’t a revenge day for me. I just wanted to take advantage of the opportunities.”

He said his biggest problem was trying to keep his emotions in check:

“There were a few times where I may have gotten a little too hyped up, a little too antsy. A couple of drives, I found myself having to calm myself down and gather my emotions to stay poised. Once I got past that, we were good to go. Keep it rolling.”

Bengals’ receiver Chad Ochocinco had 10 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He shared his thoughts postgame:

“I don’t understand why it went this way today and why it didn’t go that way last week or the week before that. The offensive line played unbelievable. For Ced to run the way he did today and for us to be able to throw, we could have done what we wanted to do.”

Chicago gave up more points than in any game all season, a fact that left defensive end Alex Brown looking for answers:

“That was pretty embarrassing. It’s embarrassing to come out and play like that. I tip my hat to their whole team. Cedric ran the ball like crazy. They did whatever they wanted to do.”

The Bengals will enjoy a bye week before hosting the Baltimore Ravens on November 8. They’ll then play two games on the road at Pittsburgh and Oakland. Chicago will try to get back on track this Sunday as they host the Cleveland Browns. The Bears are -13′ home favorites with the total set at 40.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer specializing in casino gambling, entertainment and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim Plunkett.

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NFL football betting enthusiasts who backed the Packers as -14 home dogs easily cashed their tickets with Green Bay’s third pointspread cover in five games. Detroit slipped to 2-4 against the spread. The 26 points scored went UNDER the posted total of 48′. Green Bay has gone UNDER in two of their five games this season, while Detroit evened their NFL totals record at 3-3.

In the victory, Packers’ receiver Donald Driver passed Sterling Sharpe for first place on the franchise reception list. Sharpe finished his career with 596 receptions, Driver now has 602. After the game, he talked about the accomplishment:

“It couldn’t it come in a better place — at home in front of the fans I’ve played in front of for so many years. It feels good. Now I just have to wait on Sterling to call me and congratulate me.”

Despite the convincing victory, cornerback Tramon Williams wasn’t happy with the relatively narrow margin:

“It feels like a 50 to zero game, but we didn’t quite get there. I felt we should’ve put more points on the board.”

For the Lions, their quarterback woes continued. Matthew Stafford is already out indefinitely with an injured knee, and against Green Bay backup Daunte Cullpepper injured his hamstring in the third quarter and was replaced by the Lions’ third string quarterback Drew Stanton. Cullpepper is now listed as ‘questionable’ on the official NFL injury report. After the game, he talked about Detroit’s lack of offense:

“It’s very disappointing, very frustrating. It’s embarrassing to me not to be able to move it on the field and get points on the board. We’ve got to figure out a way to do that, simple as that.”

The Packers will play on the road this Sunday, heading to Cleveland to face the Browns. The game is currently off the board as linemakers try to get a handle on the personnel impact of the Browns’ struggle with a flu bug making its way through the locker room. Green Bay will host the Minnesota Vikings the following Sunday followed by a trip to Tampa Bay on November 8. Detroit has a bye this weekend and will return to action as they host the St. Louis Rams on November 1. They’ll play their next two on the road, with games in Seattle and Minnesota.

Ross Everett is a staff oddsmaker for Sports-1 Sportsbook as well as a widely published freelance sportswriter specializing in fight sports, investing strategy and how to bet on NFL football. He is a respected authority on Internet sports betting, cigars and fencing. He lives in southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet wallaby.

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